The impact of sanctions pressure on economic cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia in the context of the Ukrainian conflict

Abstract

The article comprehensively analyzes the impact of international sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation by Western countries in connection with the conflict in Ukraine on the nature and dynamics of economic cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia. Particular attention is paid to changes in the structure of bilateral trade, including a decrease in the volume of supplies of high-value-added products, an increase in the share of raw material exports, and the growing importance of settlements in national currencies. It also analyzes the transformation of investment flows between the two countries as a result of increased sanctions pressure and limited access of Russian companies to international financial markets. This situation has led to a decrease in confidence on the part of Western investors in joint projects with the participation of Russian capital.

As a separate aspect of the study, an assessment of the risk of applying second-level sanctions against Kazakhstan is provided. This led to the need to introduce a strict compliance policy in the country's financial sector and measures to strengthen customs control over the transportation of goods through the country's territory. The article describes the phenomenon of the mass relocation of Russian businesses to the territory of Kazakhstan. This process, on the one hand, contributed to the growth of jobs and tax revenues; on the other hand, it led to an increase in the burden on infrastructure and increased competition in the domestic market.

The article reveals the role of Kazakhstan within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in changing geopolitical conditions and analyzes the prospects for further development of economic relations between Kazakhstan and Russia, taking into account external challenges and threats. The importance of implementing a multi-vector foreign economic policy of Kazakhstan aimed at ensuring national economic security, diversifying trade and economic partners, and reducing the negative consequences of sanctions pressure is emphasized.