Factors of terrorist threats in Central Asian countries

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to identify the degree of terrorist threat in Central Asia. The study was based on materials from The Jamestown Foundation Global Research & Analysis, Reuters, The Guardian, Xinhua, and George Washington University. The research employed methods of content analysis, structural-functional analysis, and comparative analysis.

The results revealed that Central Asian countries face several factors that contribute to citizen’s involvement in terrorist activities. Among these factors is living below the national poverty line, which, depending on the country, affects between 2.8% and 33.2% of the population. In addition, the region relies heavily on commodity trade, making it highly vulnerable to external geopolitical crises. Central Asia is also characterized by political instability, including authoritarian governance tendencies, border conflicts, dynastic succession of power, and social inequality.

In this context, the need to monitor the dynamics of social processes and factors contributing to the emergence of international terrorism in Central Asian countries underscores the relevance of this study. The absence of effective mechanisms for interaction between society and state authorities regarding the development and forms of religious life creates certain risks of destabilization in the region.

In the short term, local destabilization may manifest in various forms of extremist activity, ranging from terrorist attacks to mass riots. Such actions may be organized by radical religious and terrorist groups, and similar incidents are already occurring. Strengthening cooperation among the concerned countries and establishing national and supranational entities aimed at narrowing the social base of terrorist organizations will help maintain control over the expanding activities of terrorist actors. Governments in the region are implementing national-level measures to counter terrorist threats. As a result, Central Asian governments have developed mutual understanding regarding this challenge, and the measures taken are enhancing the region’s resilience to terrorism.