Political Strategies in the Gulf Cooporation Council (GCC) Countries in the Face of Declining Oil Demand: Critical Risks and Solutions

Abstract

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have long been heavily reliant on oil revenues to fuel their economies and facilitate political stability. However, the global transition towards renewable energy, combined with fluctuating oil prices and the global push to mitigate climate change, poses a significant challenge to the traditional oil-dependent economies of the Gulf region. This research explores the political strategies that GCC states are adopting in response to the declining demand for oil and the strategic risks associated with these changes. We identify key political risks such as economic diversification challenges, political instability, unemployment, and the potential for social unrest. Furthermore, the paper examines the shift in governance, state-society relations, and international diplomacy as a response to these risks. By analyzing policy adaptations, such as Vision 2030 in Saudi Arabia, the UAE’s diversification efforts, and Qatar’s shift towards non-hydrocarbon sectors, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of these strategies in mitigating the risks of oil demand reduction. We also discuss the role of regional collaboration and the potential for GCC countries to adopt a more integrated approach to economic diversification. The research concludes by proposing a set of political and economic solutions to help GCC countries reduce their dependency on oil, enhance governance frameworks, and increase regional collaboration to ensure long-term stability and sustainable development.